Welcome to this weeks "Closing Bull", my round-up of market events
Posted by How do I trade stocks? on Friday, July 13, 2018
As the sun shines in beautiful Southern Ontario reaching temperatures into the 30’s Celcius, the market has been hotting up too. It’s not closed yet, but at the time of this writing the current Nasdaq Futures trade is turning into another monster. The chart above represents daily candles and shows the current trade entry 4 trading days ago. The trade is currently up $4,500 per contract in the Nasdaq E-mini futures (22% return in your entire bank in one trade based on our conservative risk controls). I am delighted to say the system grabbed another bottom as it has done so many times before.
If you are in it, or even the QLD ETF system, congratulations, this is setting up for a move to a new all time high in the Nasdaq and likely the S&P 500 too. So let’s see where it goes and enjoy the ride, the stop will be moving higher in the morning, so watch out for my next text alert.
Bring on the bulls!
The Nasdaq Futures held the 7000 mark again. It has been bouncing of that area for a number of days now. I was surprised by the ferocity of the sell-off on Tuesday. The market was set to close at 1pm EST and it sold-off right into it. While I wasn’t expecting it, that support area held again and looks to me like that will be the last time we visit it for a while. My expectation is a move higher again from here, with tomorrow being key. The Nasdaq Futures have to take out the 7150 point to solidify my interpretation, and it closed at 7125.75, so not too far away.
This latest trade like any other requires patience. In the game of swing trading, where you are in for bigger wins in terms of multi-day/multi-week trends, you must have patience. Recently at the course I held in June I talked about the phenomenon of almost always being in the red of the first day I enter a trade. It’s almost universal, yet the ultimate outcome is always unknown….back to patience…
Bottom line, trading is not easy, never will be and even thought this latest trade is now back in the black and making money, the important thing for me to remember is that this is a game of math. I know there will be losses, but I know also that MOST of the time there will be gains, and the gains will be on average 3x the size of any losses, those are pretty good odds in the long run…even the short run.
So bring on the bulls!
Some spots have opened up due to non-confirmations, please follow the link if you would like to register for next weekends course (Sat June 23rd and Sun 24th at the Old Mill Toronto Hotel). The course is FREE and I won’t be selling anything at it either. https://howdoitradestocks.com/training/profit-power-course/
What you do get is the actual trading system itself, and all the training you need on how to use it, so if that’s something of interest, please register before it’s full again.
Have a great weekend!
Welcome to this week's "closing bull", a roundup of market news. Also here is a link to my upcoming free weekend course in Toronto June 23/24. Sign up if you can make it, we have made a few more spots available: https://howdoitradestocks.com/training/profit-power-course/
Posted by How do I trade stocks? on Friday, June 15, 2018
So, it finally looks like the QLD will be closing above $86 per share as I had mentioned was the higher probability in my last post. I would have loved to get in on it, but because it never waved down enough and went sideways for 2.5 weeks it invalidated any potential breakout entry. I needed it to go lower than 82. But them’s the breaks, so now I have to just sit on my hands and see what it does next.
Hopefully, this is not the beginning of a huge trend up and it will swing down soon to allow me a new entry. In the meantime, cash is a position and my expectation is for some selling to come soon. Most months have been profitable so far this year, and I expect June to be the same, I will be back in again soon enough.
I will not be on Facebook live again this week, with family visiting from Scotland it’s just not possible, however, normal service of my “Closing Bull” will resume next Friday.
Have a great weekend,
2018 Has been a great year so far, 10 trades with an 80% win rate! Attached are all my trades including slippage with my exact fills. I also did some math on what I have pulled out of the market per share on the QLD and it’s $32.52! This does not take into account the compounding effect of winner after winner. And when you consider that the QLD is only up just over $8 per share for the year, I am pretty happy with that performance.
These are real trades, there is no hiding place for me, I shared each and every one of these trades before they were filled.
Long may it continue…and I certainly expect it to.
P.s The Nasdaq Futures system has had an equally if not even better year so far, the systems works so well on both instruments.
As I was dealing with my own anxiety yesterday I came across this quote. Richard Branson was talking about it on CNBC and how it inspired him. If I stop and think about the financial markets, every time I make a trade I get anxious at the beginning. I am sure I am not alone!
Once it’s past the first hurdle and my stop is moving higher, particularly to the point of locking in sizable profit, anxiety is really no longer there. But in the beginning, those first few hours or days that I have to go through hoping my system has picked another winner, those are the hard times when fear creeps in to my psyche.
This quote however, sums up the reality of trading or investing. Every step I take is with at least a little fear, but on the other side of that fear is success and joy in the near to the long term….just not in the hours or days after I get in. So I thought I’d share this little quote with you all.
I am sure it is difficult for you too, reading this, and relating to how you are fearful when trading. I know that some of you are following my every move, hoping I am the real deal and that I know what I am doing! Now imagine me, with so many of you watching my every move…it just means for me that I have a little more fear that I have to get to the other side of! But I welcome it. It makes me strive to be better and always has. Ego is a powerful force!
I suppose the transparency I put out there is a little unusual. I hope that my transparency will help you succeed in however you choose to trade, and I hope that the training we do will give you the knowledge base to be a little less fearful in a high anxiety business.
P.s. Thanks to everyone that has signed up for the June course, we are now full. Sorry if you missed out, but there will be a waiting list, so make sure you join it via the link of the “Profit Power” course on the website should there be someone that had to change their plans. I will do at least 1 more course this year in September/October, so look out for that 🙂
The S&P 500 dropped over 15 points into the close yesterday due to fear around what President Trump is going to do on the Iran deal. Tensions remain high in the market. As I type this it has come down as bit after the open, and I doubt we will see a rip roaring rally before the news is released.
It is widely expected that he will announce that he is leaving the deal that Obama signed in 2015 with 5 other countries. How he plans on doing that, and when, remains to be seen. Iran has massive Oil stores and so any development could cause a big move in energy which could influence a big move in the market as a whole. The stickler is that international inspectors and signatories to the deal, including the United States, have consistently certified that Iran is complying with the agreement, but Trump has decided the accord itself is flawed…let’s see.
I am looking to get back into the market, but who wants to enter with this news looming? Not me! Fortunately, I have a system and I don’t think beyond it. It says I have a buy price set at a certain level, so it will be set there and ready. If you are following this one, I hope its a big winner, should it be filled!
Bring on the bulls!
Just a reminder: Lot’s of hurdles this week. A big one is Apple earnings coming up after the bell at 4:30pm. There have been reports from suppliers of a slow down. Could get ugly.
Then we have the Fed tomorrow at 2pm and the monthly jobs report on Friday.
The failure of the indexes getting back to the recent highs despite stellar earnings points to them making a new low and soon. If Apple doesn’t kill it and post amazing forward guidance…look out below.
Anyway, we’ll see, but I am glad to be flat in the Dot2Dot systems in a weak market.