Fed Rate Hike Decision at 2pm Today

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The Fed rather unusually has a Rate hike decision at 2pm today, normally it is always a Wednesday.  As always we can expect fireworks.

Obviously to those in this current winning trade with me, it’s a little scary, and I, (like everyone else) am hoping to be able to hang on and survive any short term volatility.

My own take is that there will not be an increase this month and if there is going to be one more before the end of the year, they will use next month as their opportunity.  I just think that given the recent market drop, I find it difficult to believe that they will decide to put further pressure on the economy and the market, call it common sense.

President Trump was very critical of the last rate hike and in fact believes the Fed should not be tightening at all.  The tightening showed up this week in Mortgage applications hitting a 4 year low.  However, all other metrics in the economy seem to be holding up including earnings.

If the ETF we trade (QLD) does not break below $86.50 today, then I expect it to hit $90+ tomorrow.  Tech has been hit the hardest in this recent fall, and company’s have come through their recent blackout due to earnings that prevented them from doing stock buybacks.  That blanket is now over and I expect we will be seeing higher prices going into the end of November, as more and more large tech companies take advantage of this recent market correction in their own equity prices and buy their own stock back.

I will follow the system no matter what, holding onto winners so that they may become really big winners remains the hardest part of trading, but that’s what makes all the difference in the end…I hope for the best!

Good trading,

John


Dealing With Losing Trades

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Very disappointing trade that one.  The overnight market dropped like a stone.  The Nasdaq trade was actually briefly in profit yesterday, however, it was such a steep fall last night that it was one of the biggest overnight drops I have experienced in Nasdaq futures, not unheard of but brutal just the same.  At the end of the day, despite being disappointed, I must accept that this is a losing trade, and in system development, there will be many.  This happens to be the largest loss I have experienced this year, but I basically made the same amount on the last trade, so while I am disappointed to give it back, sometimes I have to accept that perhaps it wasn’t mine to begin with!

Risk management and capital preservation is the number one consideration.  The system is right about 60% of the time, and my edge is that my winners are on average 2.5x my losses.   I, and anyone who follows me, are still ahead considerably for the year, but risk management comes first, and the system told me to exit this fall and so I have, without question, without thinking about it.  I know I will be trading a long time and these last two trades will one day be a blip in a back-test, and a lesson in a seminar, about why taking every trade is important.  It doesn’t feel that way today though, so I wanted to send out a note to everyone to let you know that I feel your pain, but it will recover.  It always has.

Let’s see what the next trade brings, we are back to being oversold and there will be a bottom soon.

Anyone who has attended our Power Up Your Investing course will remember that losses are part of the game.  Time to dust off and keep playing!

John


It Feels Good to be Right!

Nothing will humble you like the stock market, so don’t mistake this posting as some kind of boast about how my system just nailed the turn on this current short term top.  But, I also feel it would be remiss of me to not mention it and celebrate it’s awesomeness in calling the swing yet again.

I am out, everyone is flat, now I wait for the next trade, and I would love to see it dive lower still so I can do it again!

To our success!

John


90% Probability of a Winning Trade

Great to see the market recover, however, I had a very strong stat that gives me reason to believe that we will see a significant bounce off the lows from last week.  The indicator at the bottom of this screen is the part of the algorithm that records when the price is at an extreme oversold level after a panic.

Historically, this indicator has had a 90% probability of allowing the algorithm to enter a new order to go long and expect this to be at least a short term bottom, and that is exactly how this has played out so far.

Nobody knows how high the Nasdaq can go, but my guess is the QLD will at least be above $90 this week, possibly even today.  My entry in the QLD is $85.06, so it’s looking good so far, but hoping for more.

Bring on the bulls!

John


The Algorithm Called it Perfect

Feast your eyes on this!  The algorithm that I have spent so many long years working on is now doing things I could only dream of when I first started trading.  It’s impossible to exit at the very very top of these large swings in the market, but if you can get this close on a fairly regular basis, then you will do just fine!

The results this year have been extraordinary and I am delighted to be able to share this algorithm with anyone that will listen.  It gives me such joy to see other people win alongside me.  All I ever wanted when I started trading was for someone to give me something that works….well this works!

There is a myth that daytrading is the most consistent and lucrative form of trading, but even if someone could put an argument together to dispel that myth, just were exactly is the FREEDOM in daytrading; stressing yourself out for a few bucks per day, staring at screens trying to scratch out a living.  No thank you!

Swing trading is, and always will be one of the most, if not THEE most lucrative, freedom giving, wealth building forms of trading there is.  The trick is to know when to get in and when to get out.  And that has been my quest for over 10 years.  What you see in the picture above is the results of that quest, and I have been doing this all year.

To your wealth and health!

John


My Weekly “Closing Bull” Remarks

Welcome to the week's "Closing Bull" – my financial markets recap

Posted by How do I trade stocks? on Friday, August 31, 2018


Welcome Back to my “Closing Bull”!

My "Closing Bull" is back – A weekly review if the financial market news

Posted by How do I trade stocks? on Friday, August 24, 2018


Patience and Trading

There is no obvious way to make money from trading, which is why most traders lose money, it takes time and study to build systems with an edge. Trading is definitely not as easy as some vendors and educators would have you believe. I believe so many start trading in the belief that they will have fantastic riches with very little effort. Sadly, they will be in the 95% that lose and give up. Most accounts have been blown because people lack the discipline and patience to follow a trading plan, if they even have one!

Trading is contrarian to our emotional decision making. Basically, that which is EASY to do is almost certainly the WRONG thing to do. It is easy to take your profits when you have a winner and that is why it is WRONG. 95% of traders take profits way too soon because it is the EASY thing to do and because of this they never generate the handful of big winners that are required to pay for any and all the small losing trades. 95% of traders lose money at the end of the year because they do the EASY thing. If we want to be part of the 5% that makes money, then we have to do the HARD THING. This is what it takes to be successful.

Becoming an expert in trading patience does not happen overnight. It takes time and practice. I often feel anxious when I run a course and end up with a whole new batch of people following me. The reason is simple, I take on some of the emotional turmoil that comes with any new trader or follower of my site. I want them to win with me immediately and never look back. But, losses are also part of the game, and while they are always small in comparison to the wins, they can come consecutively too.

Those that have been with me for years I do not worry so much about. Sure, all of us, veterans or not get excited when the system is killing it as it has been for most of this year, but we also appreciate that it won’t win all the time. And, lets face it, emotionally it is easier to be losing previous profits than it is to lose any of your original starting balance. And all people that are new to my site start somewhere.

So, anyway, as I watch the current trade finally lift into profit after days of patiently waiting for it to do so, it fills me with a sense of relief for those that are new to this in particular. Hang in there, it takes patience to be successful here.

Now bring on the bulls!

John


This week’s closing Bull Broadcast

Welcome to the weeks financial markets roundup

Posted by How do I trade stocks? on Friday, July 27, 2018


This week’s “Closing Bull”

Welcome to this weeks "Closing Bull", my round-up of market events

Posted by How do I trade stocks? on Friday, July 13, 2018