Happy New Year

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DPR Update:  Breakout order cancelled, no new order in place for now, waiting for a bottom confirmation

As this is the last blog post of 2018, let me take this opportunity to wish everyone a very happy new year when it comes.  I have really enjoyed posting my trades this year and very much look forward to continuing into 2018 and beyond.  I am very grateful to all of you that read this blog post and follow my trading, without you I believe the system would not be anywhere near as good, as it is the will to help others, and really feel like I am helping, that drives the entire project forward, keeps me on my toes and wills me to improve year after year.  So thank you!

I have huge expectations in 2018 for the system.  With a couple of additions to it in the last few years I am very proud of the results that are happening in real time.  It has taken 10 years of hard work to get it to this point, but this is now just the beginning I think.  I am sure 2018 will be a knock it out the park year for Dot2Dot and I also have plans to revamp the website early next year to make it more user friendly, so watch out for that.

Until then enjoy the festivities whatever you are up to and lets make 2018 the best year ever!

My best,

John


Season Greetings!


DPR Update:  I have a new order in place that is unlikely to be hit, but if there is a continuation to a new high I will be a buyer

Seasons Greetings to one and all!

Its been a good year this year, but I am sure it will pale in comparison to next year.  2018 in my estimation will be a landmark year for the trading system.  So I wanted to take this opportunity to wish everyone well for the holiday season and say how much I lam looking forward to knocking it out of the park in 2018.

I believe 2018 will have some bumps in the road for the buy and hold brigade, as at some point early in the year I expect volatility to increase, but that will not be an issue to the dot2dot system, it will take out the swings even better that it ever has.

So once again, best wishes for a happy holiday season to all!

John


Getting Out Now

The price has crossed my proprietary Stepline indicator, therefore it is time to exit asap.  I am getting out now around the $75 Mark.  It’s a small profit, but still a profit.

My best,

John


Another Push Higher

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I am away for Christmas this year, having landed in Cancun this morning.  So I have no idea why the market decided to push even higher today, all I can say is that it is certainly welcome.  I have moved my stop to breakeven,, but note that I may email an even higher exit this week intraday should the markets start to fall, so watch out for that.  For now, there us nothing to do but wait and see if it intends on gaining more and more.

Good trading from sunny Cancun!

John


Santa Rally?

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DPR Update:  Tighter stop now in place, login for details

At the time of this writing, Republicans plan to finalize and release a joint House and Senate tax plan today.  It is expected to pass and that is why the market has so much Christmas Spirit!

This may be the start of the fabled Santa rally that comes in December most years.  Lets hope so, it’s certainly off to a good start!

Good trading,

John


New Order in Place

DPR Update:  New order in place, login for details

The markets have rebounded from a choppy few days in a row.  I don’t fully trust this move higher, but a signal is a signal.  One of these days it will actually sell off a few percent from the highs, but it may take till Jan or Feb until we see it.

So, if this is the start if a Santa rally, I am in!

Good Trading,

John


Possible Top In Place

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DPR Update: No trade, market is non directional and bearish

I exited my trade this morning for a loss.  I hate losses, but this game is not about being right, it’s about making money.  Losses are part of the mix.  Now I want to see a bigger correction come so I can sweep up the Santa rally.

If this creates a new high in the coming days I will be very surprised, I think any rallies are counter trend now and more weakness is on the way the rest of the week.  In saying that tomorrow will probably close higher simply as the benchmark has had 4 lower closing days in a row; law of averages and all that.  But I don’t think it will hold.

In any case, the system has a stay out signal due to the short term trend now pointing down.  It is going to take a lot of ammo to get a new buy signal in place now.

So, lets see some good selling to get in at a much more favorable price soon.

Bring on the bears,

John


Tough Market

DPR Action: Exit at market open

Having stayed in today, I have no doubt that the correct course of action is to get out tomorrow morning.  I took the unusual step of staying in based on strength coming back into the Nasdaq overnight.  However, at the open that evaporated and almost stopped me out before going on a screaming rally.  By mid afternoon the rally was over and a nose dive ensued.  The QLD has basically closed where it did yesterday.  So it was the little engine that could until it failed.

There was a big sell imbalance in the market at the close, almost 3 Billion to sell side was the number reported on the floor.  That’s quite rare, in fact anything north of 2 Billion on the long or short side tends to move the market in the last hour.

This pattern is getting ugly, and I think more selling is now on it’s way after today failure to hold onto its rebound.

I can only hope for a bounce overnight to reduce what looks like a rare losing trade this year.

I can take solace from the fact that the old code got a -0.5% loss on the last trade, while the new one grabbed a 2.5% gain at the recent top.  But due to the recent gap, there was nothing I could do to get a better exit from this trade.  Losses are part of the game, and I just have to live with them…

Good trading,

John


Staying In – NASDAQ Futures Showing Strength

I am getting this note out as timely as possible.  I have decided, based on the pattern, to stay in this trade.  The futures bottomed out overnight and are roaring back.  So I think this will be a recovery/inside day.

So in the spirit of transparency, I am staying in.  Everyone is free to do what they want, but this is what I am doing.

If I am wrong I will give back a little more, if I am right the upside is open ended, so the risk reward is good.  New stop in place on the DPR.

My best,

John


Gap and Fill

DPR Action: Exit at market open

I was close to sending out an emergency exit signal intraday today.  The Nasdaq got the heavy brunt of the selling, and had it broken the low of $70.10, I would have been looking to go flat.  As it happens the low survived into the close, but the system is still showing a sell signal, therefore I will be exiting at market open.  There is a possibility this may finally be some real selling now, giving me the chance to get in at a swing low that is bigger than a 1-2% drop from a high.

I accept that I can’t be right all the time, and a gap up, forcing a quick fill higher than hoped, followed by all-day selling to fill that gap is hard to avoid.  This is what I would call a classic whipsaw trade.

Never the less, there is a possibility of a counter trend move higher as it bounces in after hours trading and overnight, so it may not be that big a hit come morning.  Right now it is underwater by -3.5%, so let’s see what tomorrow brings.

However, as my system risk controls dictate, as of tomorrow morning, I will be out again at market open no matter what the overnight does…then I will look to go bottom fishing.

My best,

John