Struggling for Direction

DPR Update:  Changes are in place in the DPR, login for details

The market has been chopping around for quite a few days now.  It has really struggled to sell off, which may be an indication that we will see a new high again going into September.  I have a new order in place, but as it’s not a clear picture right now, my hope will be that the S&P 500 Futures will open weak on Sunday and the market will open lower on Monday morning giving me little chance of a fill.  As my preference is buying after a decent sell off, rather than when it is clearly channeling.  But a system is a system and all signals must be obeyed…

Have a great weekend,

John


Now for the hard part…

DPR Update:  Exit at market open, possible downtrend in place

Now comes the hard part, taking a loss is part of trading, even if it’s coming after 3 wins in a row, it’s still so difficult to do.  Just know that it’s part of the game and it’s just about protecting the account when you are wrong.   I simply must wait for the next opportunity after today’s sell off.

I had mentioned in my last post that I did not trust this trade signal, and as expected, it has failed to confirm a new trend higher.  But I can have no regrets as every signal MUST be taken to be successful over the long term.

So, tomorrow I will be flat again, waiting on the next signal which will hopefully be much lower.

Be safe,

John


Trend Continuation?

DPR Update:  New order in place, login for details

The markets very unlikely recovery yesterday has caused the system to implement a possible new trend higher.  This is one of those occasions where you look at the market and say, “no way we go higher”.  But what I think does not matter, if I only traded based on what I thought was going to happen I’d miss most of the winners and take the losses only!

So while I “think” this is probably a head fake, it’s also just as likely that the S&P 500 will breakout and head straight for 2500.  Only time will tell, but I am taking the signal as always.  My hope is that the market will come down in the futures overnight and cancel the order, but if it doesn’t it will most likely get filled at the open or close to it.

So bring on the bears if I get to stay out, and bring on the bulls if I get filled!

My best,

John


North Korea Jitters

DPR Action:  Exit at market open, more selling likely on the way

It’s never a laughing matter when you are in a nice trend and then the market suddenly sell off and eats into your profit.  Especially as the trade was up over 10% cash on cash since early July, but that’s just the nature of trend trading.  In order to get the really big trends we have to sometimes settle for smaller gains and small losses.

I think at this stage it is inconceivable that it will turn into a loss at the open, therefore, I will celebrate this gain, even if its not as much as I wanted it to be.

So, despite the doom and gloom that comes with a swift sell off, I can’t help but giggle at the picture in today’s blog.  I found it online a while back and had to share.

This particular signal is an index exit.  This technical exit, although not always, usually has a follow through and signals the beginning of a sizeable pullback.

I don’t have a crystal ball, so I cannot say for sure, but I don’t think this is going to be a large pullback.  As in my humble estimation, the bull is still alive and well and we will see prices above 2500 before the autumn in the S&P 500.  Therefore, the ideal scenario is a gap up exit, followed by heavy selling into next week and a sizeable correction so dot2dot can fish for a bottom.

For now an exit signal is an exit signal, so I will be flat come morning.  What happens next in the rhetoric between the white house and North Korea is anyone’s guess.  It has certainly been a large part of the market jitters over the last couple of days.  I only hope like everyone else that a peaceful solution can be found and it doesn’t get out of hand.

Have a great evening,

John


Back From My Travels

Image result for stock market quotes

It’s been a whole calendar month since I last set foot in Canada.  I was in Madeira, then Jersey Channel Islands, then England, then Scotland, then back to London, England again.  Hence the reason for my lack of blogs.  However, I am back and as it stands, the market is consolidating around the highs.

Obviously the current trade is doing rather well right now, and earnings seems to be good in the tech sector at least.  Apple had a good report and as I type this Tesla is up close to 5% after hours.  What it does next is as always anyone’s guess.  Just look at the market action today: Greatly received Apple results caused a gap higher at the open, but then the market sold off only to recover into the close.  Therefore, today’s quote is even more apt than normal, as this is the type of market action that causes losses to the impatient.

I have no prediction or even a bias as to where this is going.  Whenever the market has made fresh highs it’s even more challenging than usual to get a feel for direction.  This is why trading is hard, it’s so challenging to let winners run and take losses…small losses that is.  But that’s the name of the game…

So, I hope for more and a strong finish to the week, but, as it stands….nothing to do but hold.

Bring on the bulls!

John