DPR Update – Tuesday, June 27th, 2017

DPR Action:  Cancel previous order, no new order for the time being

It might not be PC to relay the expression, “Dodging a bullet”, given the craziness of what is going on in the world right now, but I can’t think of a better way to describe what happened today in the Nasdaq.  Mario Draghi of the ECB started things of by commenting that they are looking to wind down the balance sheet.  This caused quite the stir in the bond market in particular.  With the effects spilling into stocks and the indexes.

This does feel like a pullback, and it is overdue.  I was hoping not to even get a buy signal until some decent selling started, and I am glad to cancel the previous one unfilled.  Now I expect some more selling into the end of the week with some short covering on Friday.  That’s my prediction for what it is worth…which ain’t much by the way LOL!

Anyway, no trade, no loss and opportunity beckons for the patient.

Bring on the bears!

John


DPR Update – Monday, June 26th, 2017

DPR Action:  New Info on the DPR, Login for details

The market will not go down without a fight.  Even though the Nasdaq in particular closed lower today, it’s not really aggressive selling yet.  So perhaps it is determined to go higher.

Anyway, I have a buy signal here.  My preference would be for the futures to continue lower overnight so that some more selling can take place before I take a position.  But the system has given me an order, so that is my line in the sand.  If it crosses it, I’m back in for whatever journey it may take me on.

Having taken a look through the economic calendar this week, there is nothing there that will be earth shattering.  Draghi of the ECB will be speaking on Tues and Wed, and there are a few speeches from Fed members this week, but Retail sales on Thursday looks to be the only major report I think.

Therefore, with a lack of volatility, the market may be back to marching higher.

Bring on the bulls!

John


DPR Update – Thursday, June 22nd, 2017

DPR Action:  No changes, nothing to do

The market is meandering right now, wondering whether to make a new high or sell-off a little.  The Nasdaq has not joined it’s cohorts the S&P 500 and the DOW in making new all time highs recently due to the severity of June 9th’s big sell-off.  But it’s trying…

At some point there has to be some selling, and this is as logical a place as any.  I will frankly be disappointed if we don’t see some decent selling into the beginning of next week, as if it continues to meander it may mean the system will get another buy signal without the wind behind it that often comes from buying the bottom of a natural swoon.

Bottom line, it will do whatever it is going to do, but I expect there will be one or two really big trend trades left in 2017, so let’s hope for a summer sell-off so the system can swoop in and take advantage of a decent correction.  I’m not saying it’s coming, but seasonality wise, it’s overdue…

Until a signal comes, the powder stays dry with no trade during this choppy week at all.

My best,

John


DPR Update – Sunday 11th June 2017

DPR Update:   Login for changes

The image in today’s blog was doing the rounds in social media after the James Comey testimony.  It seems that Mr Trump really is made of Teflon!

Anyway, I thought it was funny, so had to share.

Moving onto the subject of the market….Friday was a crazy day in the market, particularly the Nasdaq.  For most of the day, traders were scratching their heads wondering why only the Nasdaq was selling off.  However, the other indexes soon joined only to recover quickly into the close.  I suppose the best explanation is that this was just profit taking in the tech sector, as it has been on quite the tear recently.

It’s always disappointing when the market reduces profits after a nice run, But that’s just the nature of Bull Market trends.  They often end swiftly and and feel like a knee jerk reaction at the beginning.

Is this a major trend change?  Who knows, we will only find that out this week.  With the recovery into the close, my hope is that it will continue to recover when the futures re-open today at 6pm and carry the indexes up to a gap up open at 9:30am tomorrow.

But whatever happens I am sure this will be a winning trade, just not as big a win as it was.  such is life.  But a win is a win!

The most important factor in trading is money management and knowing when to get out.  The system has an exit signal, as this fall could get a lot worse. So, historically it’s always been best to get out just in case.  The system will then look to buy into the hook that comes near the bottom, wherever that may be.

I’ll blog again when the next signal comes, enjoy the rest of your weekend!

John


DRP Update – Wed 7th June, 2017

After yesterdays pullback of sorts it was more than possible that we would see a follow through.  And indeed there was one earlier today before it recovered into the close.  What is does next is subject to what happens tomorrow….

As the principal reason for today’s blog is that tomorrow is a rather unusual day.  There are four big catalysts remaining this week.  Three tomorrow and one on Friday.  Friday’s Monthly jobs report for May will be released at 8:30am in the morning and has a tendency to cause some fireworks.

However, this weeks focus is all about what happens tomorrow.  We have a rather important election happening in my old neck of the woods.  The UK goes to the polls to choose a new leader and if Theresa May fails and Labour gets in we will more than likely see a fall in prices.  If the conservatives keep power, we could rally, at least a little overnight on Thursday evening.

We also have the circus that is the Ex-FBI director’s testimony.  James Comey is in front of the Senate Intelligence Committee tomorrow.  That, I feel is the one that has the potential to move the market the most.  Significantly as it begins at 10am eastern time!

Lastly, and unless they change something, which is anyone’s guess, the ECB Rate decision will be released at 7:45am I believe.  So before the market even opens.

So, while I sit on a healthy gain, as always, there are thoughts of taking my latest 8%+ gain and running away from these possible freights trains.  I must follow the system no matter what I think is going to happen.

My own personal view is that the S&P 500 will pull back to 2420 at least before going higher.  And I expect that to happen tomorrow.  So, if I am right, we pull back early, and rocket to an new all time high tomorrow or Friday at the latest.

Bring on the bulls!

John


DPR Update – Thursday, June 1st 2017

DPR Action: Nothing to do but hold the position

Nice day!  New all time high in the indexes.  I think what we are seeing is the funds pouring money in at month end and now into the beginning of June pushing everything higher.  The big push had already happened when President Trump told the world that the US where leaving the Paris climate deal only to have the intention of re-entering under different conditions.  Seems that it is going down like a lead balloon in other western nations right now, so we will see how that all pans out.

Clearly the financial markets are not too bothered by it, and that’s not my personal view, just an observation of the market action.  Perhaps the US markets like it when their leader makes bold moves to “Make America Great Again!”  Anyway…

So it was a fine day and once again nothing to do as the trade is now up over 6% in an open position.

Bring on the bulls!

John