DPR Update: Fri, 26th May 2017

DPR Update:  Nothing to do, but hold the position

Often in trend expansions into new highs the projections are taken from the size of the range it last broke out of.  In this case its about 50 S&P 500 points.  Should that come to fruition the QLD is heading higher and the S&P 500 is on a breakout to 2440-50 range.  All in all. it just goes to show you as this new trade closes today about 5% in profit, that we never know when the winning trades will come.  And sometimes they come on the back of a previous winner, as in this case.   I remember stating my thoughts at the time…I was concerned that the trend was at an end and this trade would probably be a loss, but that I would take the trade anyway and stay in integrity with the system no matter what.  Well, so far I am glad I did, and will continue to do so, no matter what.

The only way I know how to win in the market is not by the seat of my pants.  I have never been a good discretionary trader.  And I tried numerous times in the now distant past.  I have also never found it useful to sit down and find 20 trading ideas for the week and guess for example which way or that an earnings release would go, or a try and take advantage of a company’s fortune when a crisis happens and they are the one best suited to profit from it.  I have the thoughts sometimes, for example, I was thinking about that virus that caused panic a couple of weeks back.  How all the net security firms CEO’S must have been rubbing their hands with glee.  If I was into that type of news trading then it would make sense to bet on a listed net security firm hitting higher prices at the beginning of that week.  But that’s not what I do.

You see, I must have rules…actually more than rules.  I must have a fully explored backtested system that proves to me at least that over the period of the next number of years I have a high probability of success no matter what the market throws at me.  Everyone is different, and some say it’s not even possible to have a fully automated system/process that works long term, but I beg to differ, its the only way I know how.

Have a great weekend,

John


DPR Update – Wed, 24th May 2017

DPR Action:  Nothing to do

Today the banana skin was always going to be the release of the Fed minutes at 2pm.  The market chopped around until the news broke.

Earlier this year they had already indicated that they will be scaling back their massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet, however the market seemed to cheer the notes mentioned of moderating their balance-sheet reduction plan. It shows the Fed is being conservative in its approach to not shock the market.

So, where does it go now?  Well, at some point it is going to break higher in my opinion.  Its only a matter of time and will probably be higher by the close of the week unless news breaks the cycle.  The sell-off from last week was recovered very quickly and it is re-testing the 2400 level again in the S&P 500.   There is bound to be lots of stops above this level.  Squeezing stops sends the market higher as they have to unravel their positions.  That why we see big breakout bars in the market when it re-tests a previous high, and we may see one this week.  I think we will get to 2415 before the end of the week.  But, at the end of the day, it’s just a educated guess, the key is to follow price, not my opinions!

Bring on the bulls!

John


DPR Update – Thursday, 18th may 2017

DPR Update:  New changes on the DPR login for details

Well, well, what a day, what a 48hrs it has been.  The futures basically, as they often do to equity traders and investors, sold off after hours leaving sizable a gap at the open.  The futures have done that 2 days in a row now, and subsequently reduced the gain to about 4%.  But, still, a win is a win.

Because of the strong move regards the snap back today, I am reluctantly saying that a new order is in play.  I, like many of you, always get nervous when I am not buying a dip.  In this case we are looking to re-buy into what is now just a mini correction.  However, like I always say, its important to trade a system and have that as your plan.  I am not taking this next trade (should it get filled) lightly, this is a serious business.  The business of making money, where most lose.

Bottom line, the system has consistently performed for the last 11 years, with only 2015 being a challenge due to it’s chopsville nature, so I must trust it and place the order no matter how I feel about it.  As soon as I start to think I lose money, its almost a guarantee!

So once again I say to myself:  don’t think’ don’t think, don’t think.

With a little luck the futures will dive again overnight and I will get a much better dip to buy into in a few trading days from now, but until then, I follow the system religiously.

Have a great night,

John


DPR Update – Wednesday, May 17th, 2017

DPR Action:  Exit at market open

Bull market corrections are often swift and harsh.  It is a pity that today shaved some of the gain, but a winning trade is a winning trade.  In trend trading it’s a fine balance between giving it enough room to grow and knowing when to get the hell out.  Usually, with such a sharp decline, there is more to go and it’s at times like these that our trade discipline is tested.

Hopefully there will be a sufficient bounce into the open from the futures market.  There is often a short term snap back in the indexes before another fall. Lets hope for that, followed by another rapid fall to get a new trade a lower prices.

My best,

John


DPR Update – Tuesday, May 16th, 2017

DPR Action:  Nothing to do…again

I must admit, I did not expect this market to continue to climb as it has.  But the only way to record the big wins is to have a plan and stick to it.  I am not taking this gain for granted, but it seems inevitable that this will be a winning trade of some sort now that it has passed the 10% gain threshold.

For those of you that use leverage in your account this would be especially nice!

The S&P 500 is once again flirting with the 2400 level, we will know soon enough if it intends to march higher.

Bring on the bulls!

John


DPR Update – Wed, May 10th 2017

DPR Update:  Another high, so nothing to do but hold

Earl Niightingale is one of my favourites.  I once got a copy of his radio broadcasts from the 1970’s, had it in the car for months on repeat play a few years ago, wonderful stuff.  He had a real insight into what makes someone successful and his stories and anecdotes were always entertaining yet inspiring and motivating.  I have fallen away from listening to this kind of stuff, must get back to it…

Anyway, market continues to march and therefore there is nothing for me to do but hold the position.  It’s up a healthy 8.58% right now, and it is tempting to take it off the table, but as a trend trader, I must allow for an expansion of the trend no matter what my head is telling me.  So I will follow the system as per my commitment to it long term and my mantra of “Don’t think, don’t think, don’t think” 🙂

Bring on the bulls,

John


DPR Update – Friday May 5th, 2017

DPR Update:  Hold the position, nothing to do

The jobs number was better than expected, adding over 200,000 jobs last month with the rate dropping to 4.4% unemployment.  This was well received today in the market, moving the S&P 500 very close to it’s all time high.  Perhaps it will finally happen on Monday.

France goes to the polls over the weekend, so we will know the outcome I believe before the futures open at 6pm EST on Sunday.  This will certainly have a large bearing or how the week goes.  If it pops we will see a new high obviously, if Le Pen gets in then we probably won’t see a new high for a while….

Let’s hope for a big gap up on Monday at the open!

Have a great weekend,

John


DPR Update – Thursday May 4th, 2017

DPR Update:  Hold the position, nothing to do

Not to sound like a broken record, but once again, nothing to do but hold the winning position.  The market wiggled even more than normal today given the expected close vote on the health care bill.  However, like him or loath him, President Trump scored a massive victory today getting it passed in Congress.  It will get chewed up as per usual in the Senate next, but it’s still a big win.

I do not pretend to understand the finer details of this bill v the Obamacare policies, so this is about as political as I get commenting on the news.

Tomorrow the major catalyst is the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for the month of April, commonly referred to as the jobs report.  It is released pre-market at 8:30am and may dictate the direction of the day.

Have a great night,

John


DPR Update – Wednesday May 3rd, 2017

DPR Update:  Hold the position, nothing to do

Today the Fed rate was unchanged and they actually provided quite a positive statement on their review of the economy.

However, unusually, Apple disappointed on iPhone sales and that put pressure on the Nasdaq that the QLD ETF follows.  It was able to recover from the earlier lows and I now see a further move higher tomorrow.  Who can be sure, as the quote says, the market is never obvious, it is designed to fool most people. That’s why systems are so powerful and why they must be respected and followed.

So, once again, nothing to do.

Bring on the bulls!

John


DPR Update – Tuesday May 2nd, 2017

DPR Update:  Hold the position, nothing to do

I thought today’s quote was apt as its Apple earnings day after the bell.  For those interested in the rather regretful sale of Ronald Wayne’s shares in Apple, (gotta feel for the guy!!) here is a little more on the subject:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Wayne

The market seems to be chopping around searching for a catalyst.  It’s early in the week and we have oil inventories and the ISM non-manufacturing reports tomorrow.  But the big risk event is the Fed meeting that concludes tomorrow with a statement at 2pm.  Will there be another possible, yet unlikely rate increase?  We’ll see.

Apart from those events/reports the risk in of the geo-political nature.  Although, it was reported today that Trump and Putin had a “very good” call around ending the violence and suffering in Syria.  Let’s hope they can figure it out.

Also, outwith the sabre rattling from Kim Jong-un’s administration, no news is good news on the powder keg that is North Korea.  However, there was protests in the streets of South Korea regarding the now operational missile defense system implemented by US soldiers.  As well as strong words against it from China.  This situation is getting stickier by the day.

The trade continues to do well and hopefully will get a further spike tomorrow.  Once again it closed higher than yesterday’s close.

Have a great night,

John