Monthly Archives: April 2017

DPR Update:  Nothing to do

Well, despite the great results from the tech companies, its seems that the after hours euphoria was short lived today.  However, the QLD still managed to eek out another gain as the Nasdaq once again hit a new all time high.

The primary number that dragged things down was the GDP report.  It came in at 0.7 when an expected 1.2% was hoped for.  That added to the further craziness of the rhetoric around North Korea seemed to pull things back from the highs.

The S&P 500 toyed with a new all time high without actually getting there.  So 2400 still remains the number to beat and it isn’t now going to happen in April.  Therefore, with Monday being the dawn of a new month, I’d like to see it bring on a bullish May!

Have a great weekend!

John

DPR Action:  Nothing to do

It seems the tax plan that the market waited for turned out to have little effect on the indexes.  But the focus now is on the Nasdaq and its new all time high today.  And as I write this the after market is going higher still due to positive earnings from some of the tech giants like Amazon, Intel and Microsoft, with google’s parent Alphabet currently up 4%.  A 4% move in after hours for one of the biggest companies in the world is a big move!

So, it all looks good in terms of the trade I am currently in.  Hopefully there will be some follow through tomorrow on these positive earnings reports and we will see the S&P 500 hit its all time high too.

Have a great night,

John

HowDoITradeStocks.com

DPR Action:  Nothing to do

The above quote from Paul Tudor Jones, unquestioningly one of the best traders that has ever lived, is very apt for what the market has achieved over the last 24 hours.

It had a sudden range expansion from the French elections and has carried on in the direction of the trend today in a very strong manner.  No one can be sure, but I think it highly probable that the all time high in the S&P 500 will be tested again this week.

Tomorrow we are supposed to hear from President Trump regarding his tax reforms, so it could get interesting.  If the market likes it, we will see a further push.

Bring on the bulls!

John

HowDoITradeStocks.com

DPR Action:  No changes, nothing to do

Well, that gap up in the futures at 6pm last night pretty much guaranteed that the market was going to open significantly higher in the morning.  Call it a lucky break, and I’ll take it!

The market was very much sideways today, which is to be expected after such a burst higher.  As always, what happens next is anyone’s guess. However, as I alluded to last week, this is a big week for Trump.  Both healthcare and tax reform will be moving the markets this week.

But if you don’t hear from me tomorrow, assume there is still nothing to do with the position and things remain unchanged.  I will update the DPR anyway as normal.

Have a great night,

John

HowDoITradeStocks.com

DPR Action:  Some changes in place, login for details

Some weakness into the afternoon before a bottom was found after President Donald Trump told The Associated Press his administration will unveil a “massive tax cut” in a new reform by Wednesday next week.  News of this stopped the rot and spiked the marked higher in the other direction.

Also, once again lots of talk about Sunday’s French elections, so futures may be volatile on Sunday overnight.  I will certainly be watching that at the end of the weekend for clues on how the market will open on Monday.  But all eyes will be on the tax reforms next week and the outcome of another possible health care vote.  So big week coming!

Have great weekend,

John

HowDITradeStock.com

DPR Update:  There are changes on the DPR, login for details

Well the market made another recovery today with positive earnings and comments from the Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin about tax reform on its way.  Therefore the indexes have rebound from recent lows, will it follow through? Pass the crystal ball 😉

There seemed to be a lot of short covering, known as a short squeeze happening today, so perhaps higher prices may be on the way.  Reminds me of the market joke:  “what kind of meat do bulls eat?”  The answer….Bear meat!

We also have the French election on Sunday to contend with.  Polls are showing it be be a tight race.  What impact on the market the far left candidate will have should they win is yet to be seen.  But why worry, most thought that a Trump victory would be bad for the market…not so much so far.

Bring on the bulls!

John

HowDoITradeStocks.com

DPR Update:  No trades, nothing to do

Just got off a plane, so will be brief.  The system still hasn’t signaled a new entry, therefore I will only write a new blog post when this changes or if market news compels me to do so.  So do not think it unusual if you do not receive an email from me over the next few days.  I will update the DPR daily as per normal.

My hope remains to be new lows in the indexes in the coming days to give me a better opportunity to grab at a swing low.

My best,

John

DPR Action:  No trades, nothing to do

I was a little apprehensive after the long weekend regarding the North Korea tensions.  Thankfully the market brushed it off.  I ended up with a very small loss in the last trade, there was just no follow through from the market.

I am not particularly surprised considering how high the market has climbed since the Trump win.  However, as we are in the midst of earnings and the banks reporting after the bell, we may see another push higher as least in the short term.

In my opinion, and this is a pretty obvious statement, the market is very susceptible to geopolitical risk right now and there may be a few more headlines over the next couple of weeks that cause investors to sell.  Only time will tell.

In the meantime, the system has stood aside and I now wait on the next signal.  My preference would be new lows in the indexes, but I will follow the system no matter what.  For now, no signal, nothing to do.

My best,

John

www.HowDoITradeStocks.com

DPR Action:  Exit at market open

I am currently on vacation in the Dominican, so I have to keep this short.  The market has crossed the sell signal for the system, therefore I will be exiting at market in the morning.

There was obviously no follow through from the high of 2400 in the S&P 500, so I will be exiting in the morning and awaiting the next trade.

My best,

John

DPR Action:  No Changes, nothing to do

Market reports:

The market closed flat on Friday as investors parsed through a mixed employment report, a U.S. airstrike in Syria and comments from a top Federal Reserve official.

Talking at the Princeton Club of New York, New York Fed President William Dudley said the U.S. should consider small adjustments to the Dodd-Frank law, which toughened oversight for financial institutions.

On the data front, the U.S. economy added 98,000 jobs last month, well below the expected gain of 180,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.5 percent from 4.7 percent. Wage growth was not as strong either, with average hourly earnings up by 2.7 percent on an annualized basis.

Other data released Friday included wholesale inventories, which rose 0.4 percent. The Atlanta Fed also slashed its first-quarter GDP forecast to 0.6 percent from 1.2 percent, citing weak car sales, among other factors.

My Thoughts:

Groundhog Day in the end as the QLD closed within 1 cent of Thursdays close, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.   I was at the movies on Thursday and when I checked the futures as I left the theatre everything was normal, 20 mins later the S&P 500 had fallen off a cliff because of the air strikes in Syria carried out by the Trump administration.  It certainly caused some panic, but with calming rhetoric coming from the white house, that this was a one-off retaliation attack in response to the Syrian president using chemical weapons last week, it simply climbed all the way back up.

There was nervousness in the market throughout the day with Russia officials condemning the attack, however, the market once again calmed as it was reported that all diplomatic channels where still open with the US.

Then in the morning there was the attack in Stockholm.  Another nut murdering innocent people in a stolen truck.  From a market perspective, it started selling heavily for a short time when news wires said there was a separate gun incident in another part of Stockholm.  Lone wolf terrorism is horrible and despicable, but organised muti-attack terrorism will cause panic in the financial markets.  However, it was reported that these events were not linked and it was just one lone wolf attack, so once again the market ground back to were it re-reached the closing levels of the previous day.

Not much more to say, essentially we are consolidating just below the all time highs, so it can go either way in the short term.  I will update the DPR on a daily basis, however, if there are no changes to the system signals, I may only post a blog every couple of days.  Right now, we are in and in positive territory, so nothing to do.

Have a great weekend all!

John

HowDoITradeStocks.com