DPR Update – Friday, 31st March, 2017

DPR Action:  No Changes, nothing to do

I was listening to a talk by Dan Pena that was recorded some time ago.  In relation to the quote today, he was illustrating the fact that he believes that success for him came about as he developed an exceptional emotional bank account long before his financial account showed similar strength.  In fact, he states that people that go through periods of extreme stress and learn how to deal with that stress the best are able to succeed at a very high level.  To quote:  “…you will run low on your emotional bank account long before you run out of money”

Bottom line, we all know that success does not come easy, it’s hard, trading is hard.  Trading tests our emotional bank account long before it even shows up in our broker accounts.

So the key for me is be vigilant of my emotions.  I must focus on the execution of the system and put aside my fears and emotional gyrations.  The truth is they are not life threatening, and will be forgotten in a few days, good or bad.  The system is proven, it wins over time, so focus on the execution only, no matter the outcome day to day, week to week or even month to month.  I stop short of year to year, as that should be the barometer for any system at the least.

So I felt that I should share this little thought for the day as it relates to trading.

Market Talk:

Little movement in the market today as the first quarter comes to a close.  The market has shown remarkable resilience given the stand off in Washington recently.  There was also some economic reports today but nothing that is particularly market moving in terms of importance.  So I close out this week in positive territory for the trade I am in.  Long may it continue.

Bring on the bulls!

John

HowDoITradeStocks.com


DPR Update – Thursday, 30th March, 2017

DPR Action:  No Changes, nothing to do

The market is surprisingly holding up considering all the uncertainty around Trump’s agenda.  There wasn’t really any news of note today that I am aware of and it was once again a positive day for the Nasdaq and other key indices.

That’s the 4th positive close for the S&P 500 in a row, so it may get bumpy tomorrow or Monday.  However, at least I now have a small cushion to the upside to weather the storm should it come.

Bring on the bulls!

John
HowDoITradeStocks.com

DPR Update – Tuesday, 28th March, 2017

DPR Action:  No Changes, stop in place

Currently flying back to Canada via Iceland.  Iceland air has wi-fi in the cabin, that’s a first, using wi-fi while on a flight.  I LIKE IT!

Anyway, I am updating the DPR early as at the time of this writing it is going my way, therefore there is nothing to do.

I will touch base again tomorrow.

Bring on the bulls!

John
HowDoITradeStocks.com

DPR Update – 27th March, 2017

DPR Action:  No Changes, stop in place

I’m in Scotland visiting my mother for mothers day, so I have little comment on the news today as I wasn’t watching the market.

However, I was pleased to see a recovery from were the market opened.  So let’s hope for more in the coming days.
John
HowDoITradeStocks.com

DPR Update – 25th March, 2017

DPR Action:  No Changes, stop in place

Well well, couple of strange moves on Friday.  The market dipped towards the end of the day when it was revealed that Trump didn’t have enough votes to pass his health care changes.

This obviously doesn’t look good on him considering members of his own party have called his bluff.  However, strangely the market recovered very quickly as soon as the news broke that he was indeed pulling the vote completely.

Quite what that will do to the futures once they open at 6pm on Sunday nobody knows, however, it seems the market is pointing higher now this decision has been made.

There might still be some twists and turns next week.  The fall out of this defeat for the Trump administration in it’s push to make good on the campaign promises puts in doubt his ability to achieve his goals, so uncertainty remains.

Bring on the bulls!
John
HowDoITradeStocks.com

DPR Update – Thursday 23rd March, 2017

We seem to be having some difficulties with our email server, so I am switching to using the blog as a way to communicate until we fix it in the next few days.

DPR Action:  Filled on buy, new stop in place

There is alot of market jitters around this healthcare plan that Trump’s administration is trying to get passed in the house vote tonight.  News broke earlier that they were going to postpone it, although later it was re-stated that it will indeed go ahead tonight.  This is seen as a watershed moment for Trump and his ability to get motions though his own party.

It can obviously go either way and will potentially seal the fate of this trade whether it is going to be a win or loss.  My gut says that despite the postulating by all sides of the debate, they simply have to get this done for the republican party to show strength to the country.
I don’t like getting political, so that is all I am going to say about that!
Now, bring on the bulls!
John
HowDoITradeStocks.com

DON’T THINK, DON’T THINK, DON’T THINK!

I am holding my hands up on this one.  In the many seminars I have led, one concept has always been at the forefront.  DON’T THINK, DON’T THINK, DON’T THINK!!

The obvious truth is we have no idea what the market is about to do.  Nobody has, which is why so many people fail, as they think they do and freeze when they are wrong.

Well, it seems even I, the teacher, has fallen into the trap I always preach not to do…and THINK.  My THINKING was that a pullback must come first before another winning trade will show up, so I missed a huge winner, not the biggest ever, but its up there with the best of them.

The only positive thing I can say is that historically the system is working great.  It is a good thing to see it do so well and reach equity peak after peak since ETF’s first started trading, even if it does it without my dollars on the line.

The stats on my favourite, the QLD, are phenomenal.  Since it began trading in 2006 the backtests show an almost 1700% cash on cash return.  The system is only right 50% of the time, but crucially lets its winners run, meaning on average the wins are almost 3x as much as the losses.  The max drawdown historically peak to trough on the equity curve is 20% which isn’t so bad all things considered (2008, 2011, Brexit etc.)

Bottom line:  I will be re-starting the service on the close of the monster trade in the picture above.  I am looking now to scale down the system to trade only the QLD, knowing that over time I cannot fail.

Therefore, when I do re-start, the service will only be $17 per month to cover the cost of the website and admin etc.  I think this is fair.  Previously I charged $97 per month, but as I have stated in the past, this truly is a labour of love for me.  I know I can help others here, I spent 8 years on this system and it’s too darn good to give up on and not share.

I have other systems that are just as good if not better and that is why I can share my trades in this one without worrying if it will hurt my trading.  It’s a question I have been asked often, “why do you do this?”.  Why not?  And simply because I can.  The QLD has MASSIVE liquidity, so there are no concerns there even if 1000+ people where following the trades.

But rest assured that when I do re-start, I will not waver, nor stray from the system again, I have learned my lesson and it was costly.  So once again I state, this time to myself:  DON’T THINK, DON’T THINK, DON’T THINK!