Nov 28th 2014 – Ho Ho Ho Time

santa-clause-rally

And there goes November…Monday is the first day of December and a typically strong month for stocks.  Except it seems that the ‘Santa’ rally, termed against the historical bias of up-trending markets at this seasonal time of the year has already been. (The ‘Santa Rally is officially termed for the few days between Christmas and the New Year)

It seems to me given the absolute lack of any kind of real volatility that we will see even higher prices next week. Although we are certainly nearing a short term top.  If I was to set a number in the S&P 500 I think 2083-85 is my prediction for the next major resistance point.  It closed today at 2067, with 2075 being the new All Time High.

My biggest winner, TQQQ wasn’t quite able to show a 50% cash return for me in the 6 weeks I have been in it. Seems it is stuck on closing at a mere 49.62% today…boohoo!  In terms of testing and trading the system, I don’t think it has ever returned a 50% cash return for one trade (45% is the record), but then the system has improved significantly over the years, so perhaps it will happen again more frequently in the coming months and years.

So bring on December, this market hasn’t finished climbing just yet.

Market News:

U.S. stocks closed mixed on Black Friday amid a slide in oil prices following OPEC’s announcement that it would not cut its output.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a record close by 0.49 points, ending the month without having lost ground in back-to-back sessions since Oct. 15-16.

Friday was the final trading day of November, and the Dow and S&P 500 posted a second straight month of gains and the 8th in 11 months this year. Both indexes barely held onto their 6th straight week of gains, their longest winning streak in a year.

The S&P 500 Energy Sector entered bear market territory with a plunge of more than 6 percent, the biggest since August 8, 2011 following the S&P downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. The sector also had its worst week in more than 3 years with a decline of more than 9 percent.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average came off its highs after rising more than 50 points on Wal-Mart’s 3 percent gains, shaking off Chevron’s 5 percent decline and Exxon Mobil’s 3 percent loss.

Earlier, the Dow Jones Transportation Average rose more than 1 percent to an intraday record, with airlines JetBlue and Southwest leading the rally, but lost all those gains as railroads declined and oil barge operator Kirby lost more than 6 percent.

Major oilfield service provider Schlumberger lost about 7 percent, while competitor Halliburton closed down nearly 11 percent.

On Thursday, the 12-member oil cartel OPEC announced it would hold its output target at 30 million barrels per day, triggering a sharp decline in oil prices. The decision surprised some market professionals, who had forecast that Saudi Arabia would push through a cut.

Crude touched four-and-a-half-year lows on the news and traded below $70 a barrel on Friday.

Next week, U.S. markets will consider a slew of economic data, including the all-important jobs report.

News Sources:  CNN Money & CNBC


Nov 26th 2014 – Will This Trend Ever End?

Jesse Livermore - winners run quote

That’s all well and good Jesse, but GOOD GRIEF!  Will this uptrend EVER end!  HeHe!

This is extraordinary, the market has gone straight up almost 13% since the October 15th Low, although technically speaking it did also have a quick and rapid 8.5% run in early February this year.  So although this kind of speed and trajectory are very rare, trades this big as we have had over the last month will be repeated.

Still, I think this set of trades will receive a plaque on my wall!  It’s fast becoming legendary!  Even if I do say so myself…I will of course remain humble and studious towards the market, as nothing will humble you faster than the stock market.  It is the greatest teacher I have ever had.

So, for your folks that have joined soon after these monsters, keep your powder dry and patiently wait, we will be out of this soon and be ready to do it again in 2015…dare I say a few times more!

Market News:

U.S. stocks fluctuated on Wednesday, with benchmarks not far from record highs, as investors considered reports on manufacturing and housing in assessing the strength of the U.S. economy.

With the price of oil trading at four-year lows, the energy sector continued its recent downward trend.

SeaDrill fell sharply after the offshore driller suspended its dividend after a soft earnings report.

The government reported orders for durable goods rose in October, while a separate report had applications for unemployment benefits rising by 21,000 to 313,000 last week.

Consumer spending rose 0.2 percent last month after holding steady in September, while a gauge of business activity in the Chicago area came in below expectations.

Consumer confidence rose to a seven-year high this month, an indicator that could bode well for the holiday shopping season.

The National Association of Realtors reported pending home sales fell 1.1 percent in October.

Thursday:

Thanksgiving Day holiday

U.S. markets closed

OPEC Meets

Friday:

Black Friday holiday shopping

U.S. stock market closes at 1 p.m. Eastern

News Sources:  CNN Money & CNBC


Nov 25th 2014 – WD Gann – My Inspiration

Wd_gann

I am re-reading WD Gann’s Master Stock Course and I was inspired to share a couple of quotes from the legendary trader that he wrote in the year before his death in 1955:

“My greatest pleasure in life comes from helping others.”

“If I can throw a single ray of light,

Across the darkened pathway of another;

If I can aid some soul to clearer sight,

Of life and duty, and thus bless my brother;

If I can wipe from any human cheek a tear,

I shall not then have lived in vain while here.”

 

“I am nearing my 76th birthday and I have realized happiness and success. I feel that I have not lived in vain, because thousands of people have benefited through my books and my course of instructions and I feel confident they will benefit through the rules in this course, SPECULATION – A PROFITABLE PROFESSION.”

— W. D. Gann, May 18, 1954

The poem quoted is stated as “Anonymous”, which is a bit of a shame, because someone should be regarded for such a brilliant piece of work.  Below is the rest of it, enjoy:

If from my mind I can banish doubt and fear

And keep my life attuned to truth, love and kindness;

If I can scatter light and hope and cheer

And help remove the curse of mental blindness;

If I can make more joy, more hope, less pain

I shall not have lived and loved in vain.

 

If by life’s road side I can plant a tree

Beneath whose shade some wearied head may rest

Though I may never share its shade or see its beauty

I shall yet be truly blessed

Though no one knows my name, nor drops a flower upon my grave,

I shall not have lived in vain while here.

Market News:

U.S. stocks mainly rose on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 wavering around its peak, as data had the economy growing more than previously forecast in the third quarter, offsetting an unexpected drop in consumer confidence in November.

The energy sector weighed on the broad market, with oil prices falling to a four-year low two days ahead of an OPEC meeting that has investors considering prospects for the first reduction in production quotas since 2008.

Crude erased initial Tuesday gains after the head of Russia’s state oil producer said a drop below $60 a barrel would not mean Russia would have to ease its output. Crude-oil futures dropped $1.69 to $74.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Tuesday’s economic reports were mixed; the Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence declined to 88.7 in November from 94.1 the prior month, and the Commerce Department reported gross domestic product climbed at a 3.9 percent annualized rate, up from an initial 3.5 percent estimate.

Another report had a gauge of home prices in 20 cities climbing at a reduced pace in September

Apple’s market capitalization reached $700 billion, a major milestone for CEO Tim Cook as the consumer technology company’s value has doubled during his three years at the helm.

Tiffany & Co. shares rose after the jewelry reported earnings and revenue that missed estimates; Campbell Soup gained after posting an earnings and revenue beat.

Wednesday:

Earnings: Deere

8:30 a.m.: Jobless claims

8:30 a.m.: Durable goods

8:30 a.m.: Personal income

9:45 a.m.: Chicago PMI

9:55 a.m.: Consumer sentiment

10:00 a.m.: New-home sales

10:00 a.m. Pending-home sales

News Sources:  CNN Money & CNBC


Nov 20th 2014 – This Market Ain’t Done Yet…

Peter Lynch Quote

Well Well…Not too many folks expecting that rebound!

Just when this rally looked like it was petering out, further bullish moves come in to buy up even the most shallow of dips.  Leaving the bears holding their heads in horror!

There has to be a plethora of shorts in this market by now, hoping that a reversal will happen and soon.  The irony is that capitulation by the short sellers could drive the market even higher.

Personally, I think it is not quite done yet, I have two target’s in mind on the S&P 500 2064 then 2081.  Given the strong continuation of buying, I think it will get to 2081 before reversing.  We’ll see.

Market News:

U.S. stocks traded higher on strong domestic data that alleviated concerns over continued signs of slowing growth in Europe.

Intel rose more than 4 percent after the technology firm reported an upbeat outlook for 2015 revenue and raised its dividend. The California-based company has benefited from a stabilizing personal computer market.

In the morning, the Philly Fed Index posted 40.8 for November, more than double the expected 18.3 and the highest since December 1993. Any reading above zero indicates expansion in the region’s manufacturing. The survey covers factories in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.

Existing home sales hit 5.26 million and leading indicators gained 0.9 percent, both beating expectations for October.

Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba sells its first-ever bond on Thursday, a jumbo trade expected to be around $8 billion in size and could extend to $10 billion. With pricing expected this afternoon, the bond offering comes just two months after the company’s record IPO.

In U.S. retail, Best Buy and Michaels posted results for the third quarter that beat expectations. Household goods retailer Williams-Sonoma earnings beat estimates.

The Security and Exchange Commission suspended trading in four microcap companies touting development of Ebola-related treatments or services, citing a lack of publicly available information about their operations.

The companies—Bravo Enterprises, Immunotech Laboratories, Myriad Interactive Media and Wholehealth Products—were not able to be reached for comment.

Stocks had opened lower as lackluster domestic data failed to outweigh signs of a continuing negative trend overseas. Futures held earlier losses as U.S. weekly jobless claims fell more than expected at 291,000, with continuing claims the lowest since 2000. The Consumer Price Index for October was unchanged.

The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee October meeting released on Wednesday sounded mostly dovish, as Fed members expressed concern for the global economy.

Friday:

Earnings: Foot Locker, Ann

News Sources:  CNN Money & CNBC


Champagne Anyone?

champagne

WOW…Practically speechless having taken my own account to over a 100% return in 1 month, and I know that there are members celebrating the same returns tonight as I am.  It has been literally 24 trading days since we nailed the bottom of this market allowing me to double my account!

I am so pleased to be able to offer outstanding returns to people that are part of our journey here at howdoItradestocks.com.  This system is the real deal and I can’t wait to see what 2015 will bring as we come to a close on the year.

I don’t have anything else to say other than, thanks for the faith and congratulations!

As they say in Scotland, Slainte mhath (pronounced ‘Slange-ee-va’), “To your very good health”…Now I’m off to buy some champagne!

John


Nov 17th 2014 – AWESOME traders!

HDITS Pic

A boring day in the market following a fantastic weekend course.  We ran our foundational course “Stock Market Success” on Saturday and Sunday and had a blast with a new group of AWESOME traders!

I just love teaching my strategies and getting feedback from people that are now really making serious money in the market.  That was the last one till January.  I look forward to kicking things off again in the new year.

Great people make great events rock!  Thank you all for attending and I look forward to seeing you at the next event.

Market News:

U.S. stocks were little moved on Monday, with the S&P 500 recording a 42nd record close of the year, as comments by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi helped offset data that unexpectedly showed Japan’s economy in a recession.

Monday’s U.S. economic reports had industrial production falling 0.1 percent in October, compared to expectations for a 0.2 percent gain.

Separate data had manufacturing activity in New York state rising in November, bouncing back from the prior month’s read.

Coming back from a 27-point deficit, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 13.01 points, or 0.1 percent, to 17,647.75, with UnitedHealth Group leading blue-chip gains.

The S&P 500 added 1.5 point, or nearly 0.1 percent, to 2,041.32, with energy falling the most and utilities faring the best among its 10 major industry groups.

Halting a five-session win streak, its longest since August, the Nasdaq dropped 17.54 points, or roughly 0.4 percent, to 4,67100.

Tuesday:

Earnings: Home Depot, TJX Cos, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Jack-in-the-Box, La-Z-Boy, PetSmart, Manchester United

8:30 a.m.: Producer price index

9:00 a.m.: TIC data

10:00 a.m. NAHB survey

1:30 p.m.: Minneapolis Fed Narayana Kocherlakota

News Sources:  CNN Money & CNBC


Nov 13th 2014 – OMG! Almost Triple Digits

OMG Markets Up Again

I make no secret of the fact that I use as much margin as you can shake a stick at (30% or 3x).  Well, today my account was on the threshold of a 100% return in this most recent set of trades alone.  The same set that started mid October.  Literally 4 weeks to the day.

At the high today it was around 95% before retracing a little.  The question is, will the market give me MY FIRST EVER (entire portfolio) 100% return WITHIN one calendar month?  It seems improbable, as it’s not supposed to be possible, just ask anyone on Bay Street.

If it has been achieved it is usually because someone got lucky and risked too much.  But the truth is, the system I designed is so risk controlled that this is simply not the case.  I have very tight controls, but allow my winners to run.  And this portfolio as a whole usain bolt-ed and is still sprinting!

I have no idea where this market is going now, it is certainly getting tired, but I am feeling very grateful to Mr. Market right now for allowing me and the good folks that subscribe to my daily ramblings and trade alerts to see what is possible.  With time, persistence, belief and education, you can achieve anything…

Now Mr. Market, how about that 100%?…go on, just a little more…

Market News:

U.S. stocks fluctuated on Thursday after the S&P 500 and Dow rose to records, with energy companies slammed as the price of oil fell, countering upbeat earnings from the world’s largest retailer and data showing jobless claims holding at a 14-year low.

Of the 460 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly earnings, 74.6 percent have topped expectations, according to numbers compiled by Thomson Reuters.

Wal-Mart Stores climbed after the company reported a larger-than-expected profit as comparable sales at U.S. stores climbed for the first quarter in seven. J.C. Penney shares declined after the retailer posted a less-than-estimated quarterly loss but said same-store sales were flat.

After a 93-point gain that had it at its loftiest level, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as much as 28 points, and ended up 40.59 points, or 0.2 percent, at 17,652.79, with Wal-Mart pacing gains and Caterpillar leading blue-chip losses.

The S&P 500 added 1.08 point to 2,039.33, with energy falling the most and telecommunications faring best among its 10 major sectors.

The Nasdaq rose 5.01 points, or 0.1 percent, to 4,680.14, its highest close since March 2000.

Friday:

8:30 a.m.: Retail sales

8:30 a.m.: Import and export prices

9:10 a.m.: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard

9:55 a.m.: Consumer sentiment

10:00 a.m.: Business inventories

10:30 a.m.: Natural-gas inventories

4:00 p.m.: Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer on panel

4:00 p.m.: Fed Gov. Jerome Powell on panel

News Sources:  CNN Money & CNBC


Nov 11th 2014 – Don’t Feed The bears!!

Dont feed the bear

Nov 11th 2014 – Don’t Feed The bears!!

The bears are getting hungry, as we are certainly due a move to the downside now.  However, when it comes, whenever it comes, I am not expecting it to be a large one as Santa is on his way.

Today, inexplicably, the market closed up again!  Rather interestingly the Russell 2000 (small cap index) is now the only index that has not breached the most recent highs from earlier this year.  Perhaps it is playing catch up, as normally it leads.

So, while I am sure the dip is coming added to the fact that my trigger finger is ready to grab my mid October monster profits, I must painfully continue to be a stand for the integrity of the system that has created these profits and simply wait till it tells me when it is time to exit.

Market News:

U.S. stocks closed around highs on Tuesday as investors found little impetus to move decisively in one direction or the other. The movement was enough to push the Dow and S&P 500 up one point each to a record.

Alibaba Group Holding slid as the Chinese e-commerce company’s shopping holiday sales cleared the $9 billion mark; D.R. Horton rose after the homebuilder reported better-than-expected quarterly revenue; Groupon climbed after the online provider of daily deals provided revenue guidance for 2015 above estimates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up for the fifth consecutive session at 17,614.90, a gain of 1.16 points or 0.01 percent, with JPMorgan Chase leading blue-chip decliners. The Dow rose 24 points and fell as much as 28 in intraday trade.

The S&P 500 closed up 1.42 points, or 0.07 percent, to a new record of 2,039.68, with materials pacing gains and utilities hardest hit among its 10 major sectors.

Of the 449 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported third-quarter results, 74.6 percent have posted earnings above estimates, while 59.3 percent beat revenue expectations, according to data compiled by Thomson Reuters.

Hitting its highest level since March of 2000, the Nasdaq closed up 8.94 points, or 0.19 percent, at 4,660.56.

Wednesday:

Earnings: Burberry, Macy’s, Beazer Homes, SeaWorld, Cisco, JC Penney, NetApp, Pinnacle Foods, Telefonica, Iamgold, Flowers Foods

3:00 a.m.: Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser

7:00 a.m.: Mortgage applications

10:00 a.m.: Wholesale trade

12:00 p.m.: Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota

1:00 p.m.: $24 billion 10-year note auction

News Sources:  CNN Money & CNBC


Nov 11th 2014 – The Leprechauns Must Be Flooding the Gold Market

GoldMarket

Gold and oil fall again.  Falling Oil prices are great for consumers like us.  A few weeks ago, the market dip was being blamed on the fall in oil, however, now it seems that it is seen as a positive for holiday spending.  Anything that reduces the cost of living and saves money at the pump is a good thing.

I think gold’s issue right now is a basic supply and demand problem.  There is just too much of it in circulation, it is continually mined, yet stays in circulation, never gets used up.  I am no gold expert, but that’s my hypothesis, so that is why I think it has lost its shine…and no I don’t believe in Leprechauns, but I like this cartoon!

“There is no catalyst that you can put your arms around at this time that could trigger a meaningful pullback” said one market analyst today.  I am inclined to agree.

This slow grind higher is rather strange, but there is no need for it to fall over just yet.  All news seems to be good news in terms of earnings.  In fact Margins and earnings are at record levels with unemployment stats coming down.  All bodes well for a continuation.  Of course at some point there has to be a profit taking dip, I just don’t know when…

Market News:

U.S. stocks stepped modestly higher on Monday, with health-care companies leading the charge that again lifted benchmarks to records, as investors tracked corporate results as the earnings season starts to wind down.

Time Warner Cable, Comcast and Cablevision Systems declined after President Barack Obama urged an “explicit ban on paid prioritization” to protect the open internet, saying in a statement that there should not be any slowing of internet content. Time Warner and Comcast both sell broadband service.

Toppling intraday and closing records set only a session ago, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up 39.81 points, or 0.23 percent, at 17,613.74 points, with Nike leading blue-chip gains.

Also hitting an all-time high, the S&P 500 rose 0.31 percent, or 6.34 points, to 2,038.26, with health care advancing the most and energy the leading laggard among its 10 major industry groups.

The Nasdaq closed up 19.08 points, or 0.41 percent, at 4,651.62.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude-oil futures for December delivery dipped $1.25 to $77.40 a barrel, and the December gold contract dropped $10.00 to $1,159.80 an ounce.

News Sources:  CNN Money & CNBC


Nov 7th 2014 – Records Broken Again

Broker

According to the jobs report for the month of October today, the economy is improving.  At least according to the % of unemployed.  It came in at 5.8%, a 7 year low.  Indeed as impressive as that stat is, the amount of jobs created was not very impressive and came under what was expected.

Still, somehow this week, that has been completely sideways, did what it had done for the first 4 days of the week and neither crashed nor shot for the sky. Just a plain vanilla week.  Although, don’t get me wrong, I am not grumbling, in real terms it still closed up from last Friday and I’ll take it.

For me the market is still showing strength as any attempts to pull it down have been bought, so it is rather an impressive show really.  Perhaps we will see a similar week next week as market participants continue to be unsure of what to do next at these historic highs.

In conclusion, the trades I am in since the middle of October when we bottomed out are still in place, and will be till the trend changes.  But for now the trend remains my friend!

Market News:

U.S. stocks wavered on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Dow industrials setting their loftiest finishes, after data had the U.S. economy producing less-than-expected jobs in October and the unemployment rate declining to a six-year low.

The Labor Department report, which had payrolls increasing by 214,000 last month, less than the 231,000 anticipated, However the jobless rate came down to 5.8 percent.

First Solar led losses on the S&P 500, falling 11 percent, a day after the maker of solar panels said it would not create a publicly traded yield company to own and operate its own power plants, as rivals including NRG Energy have done. Monster Beverage was the S&P’s best performer, with the maker of energy drinks rising 7.3 percent after reporting quarterly profits that topped estimates.

News Sources:  CNN Money & CNBC