Sept 30th 2014 – S&P 500 & Nasdaq Win Streak Extends to 7 Quarters in a Row

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Market View:

Holy rollercoaster…a spike up followed by a spike down, then a spike up, before rolling over later in the day.  We haven’t seen this type of extended month long volatility for quite some time.

The economic reports today were all under expectations, so I am not sure where the jump came in the futures overnight as well as the fast recovery from the first dip today.

However, the big reports are the ISM manufacturing report tomorrow at 10am and the Jobs report on Friday.  If both are stronger than expected we should see a rally.  If either or both are weak, it may still rally as the Fed is still holding up the market in my opinion.  With interest rate increases some way out in the distance.  In my estimation, we move higher from here.

Market News:

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday, with equities posting September losses and quarterly gains, as portfolio managers engaged in end-of-quarter positioning.

Tuesday’s economic reports all came in below expectations, but ultimately take a back seat to Friday’s jobs report, Forrest believes.

Equities had declined after the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 86 in September from 93.4 the month before and below an expected 92.5.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property prices also came in below expectations, rising 6.7 percent from July 2013.

The Chicago PMI for September came in at 60.5, less than the expected 61.9 estimate.

Wednesday:

Earnings: Accuity Brands

Monthly vehicle sales

8:15 a.m.: ADP employment

10:00 a.m.: ISM manufacturing

10:00 a.m.: Construction spending

News Sources:  CNN Money & CNBC


Sept 29th 2014 – Stocks Close Down On Hong Kong Protests

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Market News:

There is major protests in Kong Kong and the data is bad, yet the market recovered a sizeable chunk of the rather nasty gap down this morning.

Personally I was hoping it would come down some more to make things cheaper, but alas, there are clearly more market players that expect this to be enough of a dip buying opportunity than I thought it would be.

From a technical point of view, the chart is a bit of a mess with a lower high and a lower low intimating a change in trend to the down side in the coming weeks, but unfortunateklly without my crystal ball, it is difficult to read what it will do next given the powers that allowed it to rally on Friday and recover almost all of the gap today.  But, in my opinion, given the strength of the buying after Thursday’s dismal day we may be bottoming out here and I expect we will be heading higher by the end of the week for a new wave up.

Market News:

U.S. stocks closed down on Monday despite encouraging economic data as the Hong Kong protests weighed on global markets.

Energy led declines on the S&P and Dow Jones Industrial Average, with Exxon Mobil and Chevron the hardest hit.

The Dow and S&P regained ground after falling about 1 percent in the open. In late-morning trade, the Nasdaq also reversed losses to turn positive briefly before trading in the red again.

Stocks did not move much in reaction to a 1 percent decline in pending home sales for August, and futures were little changed after reports that personal income rose 0.3 percent in August, as expected.

Scheduled tomorrow are purchasing managers’ index and consumer confidence, ahead of Friday’s important jobs number.

Earlier, protests in Hong Kong had rattled global markets and U.S. stocks about percent lower, but most analysts said the situation would not have a long-lasting impact on markets.

The German DAX fell more than 1 percent on Monday, well below its 50-day moving average.

The Hang Seng closed 1.9 percent lower on Monday after pro-democracy protest in Hong Kong intensified over the weekend. Riot police fired rounds of tear gas and demonstrators continued to block roads on Monday, leading schools and banks to close.

But unless the situation continues to deteriorate significantly, analysts believed investors would resume a focus on domestic events.

Tuesday:

Earnings: Walgreen

9:00 a.m.: S&P/Case-Shiller home prices

9:45 a.m.: Chicago PMI

10:00 a.m.: Consumer confidence

News Sources:  CNN Money & CNBC


Sept 25th 2014 – Hell, Fire and Brimstone!

UDOW Sept 25th

Market News:

Today is why it is important to take small losses on new positions or get out of trades that are in a profitable position when the market turns south.  Getting out of the market yesterday, as the above picture on one of the instruments we trade shows, was a blessing after today’s carnage.

I actually had some buy orders back in place after yesterday’s rally, but fortunately the market had only one direction in mind today and none were filled.

However, being a spectator in cash today is certainly not about being smug, as nothing will humble you like the stock market!  So I will take my good fortune and thank my systems wonderful programming for keeping me out of the bloodbath that happened today.

The only explanation I can have for yesterday’s rally was that the many people that were short for so long as the market climbed back to new highs recently finally saw their chance to buy back their shorts and go lick their wounds, which as on Friday would have been considerable.

Just where the bottom is here is too hard to say as we have a lower low on the indexes, suggesting a possible change in trend.  I hope for more selling to the point that the market is extremely oversold as that is where the best opportunities are.

Market News:

U.S. stocks declined on Thursday, with the benchmark indexes recording their worst session since July 31, as Apple tumbled on glitches tied to its new smartphone and as investors considered a proposal in Russia that would let its courts seize foreign assets.

Reuters reported the draft law, submitted to Russia’s parliament on Wednesday by a pro-Kremlin deputy, would also allow state compensation for those whose assets were taken in foreign jurisdictions. The proposed measure comes after Italy froze luxury properties owned by a long-time friend of President Vladimir Putin, Bloomberg reported.

The CBOE Volatility Index, a measure of investor uncertainty, jumped 21 percent to 16.05; the price of gold turned higher and Treasuries rallied.

Apple dropped 3.7 percent as the iPhone maker contended with glitches in the latest version of its operating system. Twitter and Pandora Media led declines among Internet firms. The Russell 2000 Index of smaller companies dropped 1.3 percent.

Economic reports had orders for long-lasting goods falling 18.2 percent in August, while applications for unemployment benefits rose by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 293,000 last week, less than the 300,000 estimate.

A third number came from financial-data firm Markit, which said its initial services Purchasing Managers Index for September came in at 58.5 versus an expected 59.0.

Friday:

8:30 a.m. GDP revision

9:55 a.m. Consumer sentiment

News Sources:  CNN Money & CNBC


Sept 24th 2014 – Stock Rally Halts 3-Day Rout

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Market View:

Quite the rebound today after a shaky start.  Seems that housing is not as bad a first feared earlier in the week.  It remains to be seen if this is just a tight trading range which has been typical of September so far or if we are heading for a new all-time high wave up next.  Only time will tell.

Weekly jobless claims and durable goods are the main news of tomorrow morning, but I doubt we will see a big rally tomorrow after today, probably more sideways to slightly positive depending on the data.

Market News:

U.S. stocks rallied on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq halting a three-day losing run, after an upbeat report on new-home sales and as investors bet on further monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank.

The Commerce Department reported new-home sales rose 18 percent to 504,000 units in August after a 1.9 percent gain in July. Existing-home sales declined in August for the first time in four months.

Ahead of the open, stock futures gained on hopes for more monetary stimulus from the ECB and after a measure of German business sentiment fell for a fifth straight month in September.

Equities furthered their ascent after Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said the central bank should be “exceptionally patient” in withdrawing stimulus.

Thursday:

8:30 a.m. Weekly jobless claims

8:30 a.m. Durable goods

1:20 p.m. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart

News Sources:  CNN Money & CNBC


Sept 22nd 2014 – Ugh. Even I had to go for a long walk today!

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You know, when the Market has days like today it is very easy to let your emotions run wild.  Of course they do – we are human beings and we don’t like to see the market not go in our favour.  I don’t like it any more than anyone else.

But here’s the thing.  The Market will have good days and the Market will have bad days.  This is not the first bad day or last one we’ll all see.

When I look at the responses to today’s Market conditions I see a very clear divide between our clients.  Those that have come to our training courses and those that have not.

Here’s why I say that.  On a day like today it is so easy to let your emotions get the better of you and to start questioning yourself, the system…well really…anything and everything that has to do with the stock market at all and your ability to be a trader, especially when you’re just starting out!

Now the people who have taken our courses understand that this emotional roller coaster is part of the business of trading.  They recognize it for what it is, go for a walk, make a cup of tea, dance a jig, go out for lunch or do whatever it is that’s going to make them feel better.  They understand that it is just a day, that every trade has a 50/50 chance of gaining or losing, that the system averages 50% higher gains than losses, and tomorrow is another day.  It’s not personal.

It does not mean that they don’t feel the disappointment of a down day in the Market, it’s just that their response to it is different.

Those that have not been to the courses, well, frankly, they panic.  They decide the system isn’t working, that the world is falling apart they are going to lose all their money and 2008 is around the corner.

I wish I could have every single person who ever looks at our website come to our live training courses.  Our job in our courses is to create the best retail traders in the world, able to weather the storms as well as celebrate the sunny days, while they ultimately make a LOT of money.  All it takes is stick-to-it-ness.

You tell me – what would it take for me to get everyone to come to our courses?????

Market News:

U.S. stocks fell on Monday, with small companies taking it on the chin, as China signalled it would not boost stimulus and after home sales unexpectedly declined in August.

Apple rose after the technology giant reported weekend sales of the latest versions of its iPhone topped 10 million. Yahoo shares fell after Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Sanford Bernstein downgraded its shares after Friday’s market debut by Alibaba Group Holding. Dresser-Rand Group rose after Germany’s Siemens said it would acquire the maker of oilfield-equipment maker for $7.6 billion.

The Russell 2000 Index of small caps dropped 1.6 percent, with Carbo Ceramics among the biggest decliners. The supplier to the oil-and-gas industry projected sales of ceramic proppant would fall in the third quarter.

Already in the red, equities steepened their slide after the National Association of Realtors reported sales of previously owned homes declined 1.8 percent last month.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago on Friday reported U.S. economic activity declined in August.

Speaking at Bloomberg Markets Most Influential Summit in New York, Fed Bank of New York President William Dudley said the central bank’s rate guidance is not written in stone and reiterated the Fed’s monetary policy remains data dependent.

Tuesday:

9 a.m. FHFA home prices

News Sources:  CNN Money & CNBC


Sept 18th 2014 – S&P 500, Dow end at record peaks

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Market View:

Another great day in the markets, the jobless claims helped fuel a rally that started yesterday after the federal reserve’s comments on interest rates.  Sometimes it just feels crazy to be buying into a rally like this, but onwards and upwards we go into new and uncharted territory.

Just what will derail this latest multi-week rally I don’t know, but perhaps if Scotland does indeed vote to be free of the UK, there will be some selling tomorrow, otherwise we may see it go up again.

Market News:

U.S. stocks rose on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Dow industrials toppling records, as investors considered mixed economic reports on jobs and the housing market and continued to relish the Federal Reserve’s renewed vow to keep benchmark rates low.

Economic reports Thursday had the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits dropping to a two-month low and separately, housing starts declined in August. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s index of factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region decelerated in September, but its employment component rose to its highest level since the middle of 2011.

The Fed on Wednesday reiterated its “considerable time” wording in reference to how long it would hold off on hiking interest rates. The central bank also signaled that it might increase borrowing costs more rapidly than previously thought, helping lift the dollar, with the U.S. currency rising to a six-year high against the Japanese yen.

Friday:

Scotland Independence Result

10:00 a.m.: Leading indicators

News Sources:  CNN Money & CNBC


Sept 17th 2014 – Dow Rises To Record On Fed Statement

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Market View:

It was good news for the equity markets today from the Fed.  It was highly volatile for a while before the consensus was established that interest rates will not be tampered with for quite some time.  And despite reporting that bond buying will end in October, the markets cheered the hints on interest rates.

There are still some things on the horizon this week that may cause concern, notably the vote in my own country of birth, Scotland.  If YES goes through we may see additional volatility.  But I have to be honest and say that I do not know when the outcome will be known.  It may be Monday morning before the markets get a chance to react to the outcome.

Market News:

U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, with the Dow ending at a record and the S&P 500 back above 2,000, after the Federal Reserve said it was nearing the end of its asset purchases and reiterated it would not hike interest rates for a ‘considerable’ period.

In its statement released after its two-day meeting, the Fed left largely intact key provisions and cut its bond buying down to $15 billion a month, while indicating the asset purchases would end altogether in October.

Other economic data Wednesday had a measure of confidence among home builders rose to its highest level since 2005.

The Consumer Price Index declined 0.2 percent last month, while prices excluding food and energy costs held unchanged.

Thursday:

Scotland independence vote

Earnings: Oracle, Rite-Aid, IHS, Tibco, RedHat

Alibaba IPO pricing

8:30 a.m.: Initial claims

8:30 a.m.: Housing starts

10:00 a.m.: Philadelphia Fed survey

News Sources:  CNN Money & CNBC


Sept 10th 2014 – Stocks Rise, With Tech Sector Leading Gains

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Market View:

I think today was a day for the bottom feeders, looking for a good place to buy the dip.  This plateau continues as we yoyo up and down searching for direction.  My gut still says we go higher from here, but only time will tell.

There was no major breaking news that was driving this move back up, just an attempt to catch the next wave up early in my opinion.

On another note, this will be my last blog post till next week as I am going on my annual expedition into Algonquin National Park where I get to pretend to be Grizzly Adams in the wilderness…loved those movies as a kid!  Should I survive the bears I will write to you all again on Tuesday.

Market News:

U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, rebounding after the S&P 500’s largest decline in a month, with social-media shares helping lift the technology sector and as investors pondered when the Federal Reserve would start hiking interest rates.

Twitter rallied after UBS advised buying its shares; Facebook and LinkedIn also rose after UBS also raised its price targets on the social-media companies.

The decline in the cost of crude and a rise in consumer confidence bodes well for retail sales, analysts say.

Apple rose, a day after the provider of consumer technology unveiled a smartwatch and payment gadgets.

The central bank is measuring the progress of the recovery as it readies to conclude its bond purchases and considers raising rates. The Fed begins its next two-day policy session in a week.

The government on Wednesday reported wholesale inventories rose 0.1 percent in July, versus expectations for 0.5 percent.

Ahead of Wednesday’s open, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported home-mortgage applications declined last week as interest rates rose.

Thursday:

Earnings: Kroger, Lululemon Athletica, Ulta Salon

8:30 a.m.: Unemployment claims

10:30 a.m.: Natural gas inventories

1:00 p.m.: 30-year bond auction

2:00 p.m.: Treasury budget

News Sources:  CNN Money & CNBC


Sept 8th 2014 – Stock Closed Mixed after Mid Afternoon Swoon

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Market View:

Bad day to be in energy stocks, Crude Oil fell below $100 for the first time in a year.  Gold also had a sizeable drop.

It seems that we are stalled at around 2000 on the S&P as it plateaus here for a while.  I think given the failed movement down last week, we will see higher prices by the end of the week.  Every attempt by the bears is bought.  We are due a day that is all about a rally, who can be sure if it will come this week, but I just have that feeling that it is imminent.

Also, we have Apple tomorrow unveiling more i-Stuff and Alibaba is on it’s way soon.  Therefore, I am feeling very positive about the short term view.

Market News:

U.S. stocks mostly declined on Monday, with energy producers leading losses on oil’s drop to a multi-month low, as investors retreated after a fifth week of gains lifted the S&P 500 to a record, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average not far behind.

The energy sector fell the most among the 10 major industry groups on the S&P 500, which declined 6.17 points, or 0.3 percent, to 2,001.54, leaving it just over 6 points from its record closing high, set Friday.

The energy sector fell the most among the 10 major industry groups on the S&P 500, which declined 6.17 points, or 0.3 percent, to 2,001.54, leaving it just over 6 points from its record closing high, set Friday.

The energy sector fell the most among the 10 major industry groups on the S&P 500, which declined 6.17 points, or 0.3 percent, to 2,001.54, leaving it just over 6 points from its record closing high, set Friday.

The Federal Reserve on Monday reported U.S. consumers increased their borrowing in July, led by rising car loans and higher credit card balances.

Tuesday:

Apple’s unveils new i-stuff

Earnings: Barnes and Noble, Krispy Kreme, Burlington Stores, Palo Alto Networks

7:30 a.m.: NFIB small business optimism

10:00 a.m.: Fed Vice Chair Daniel Tarullo testifies on Dodd Frank

10:00 a.m.: JOLTs job openings and turnover data

1:00 p.m.: 3-year note auction

News Sources:  CNN Money & CNBC


Sept 5th 2014 – Record finish for S&P 500

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Market View:

Thankfully a cease fire has been agreed in the Ukraine, we can only hope it is for real and it lasts.

Other than that, which I believe the market had already priced in, I have little idea why it rallied so hard today…but, I am grateful for it!

I can only assume it is because traders feel that it is less likely that the Fed will dabble with interest rates with such a disappointing jobs number today.

Market News:

U.S. stocks erased losses and rose on Friday, with benchmark indexes extending gains into a fifth week, as investors detoured around a surprisingly disappointing jobs report.

The number of jobs created “was way under what they anticipated, but the unemployment rate countered that,” Stephen Carl, head equity trader at the Williams Capital Group, said of the Labour Department’s report, which had nonfarm payrolls adding just 142,000 jobs even as the jobless rate declined to 6.1 percent. Economists had expected payroll growth of 225,000 last month.

The argument could also be made that the disappointing August jobs tally calmed concerns about the Federal Reserve removing stimulus sooner rather than later.

The Fed is measuring the health of the jobs market as it tapers bond purchases and mulls the timing of interest-rate hikes.

Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists agreed to a truce after months of bloodshed as U.S. and European officials considered further sanctions against Russia for its part in the conflict.

News Sources:  CNN Money & CNBC