May 13th 2014 – Dow Halts 5-Day Winning Run

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Market View:

Big retailers report tomorrow which will influence the market up or down.  However, we are in uncharted territory with the Dow and S&P and therefore it is difficult to predict were to expect it to go next.

I still think that, considering the Russell 2000 small cap index is now down 9% from it’s recent high, it will help drive the overall market higher as the tech stocks and the bio techs as well as the small caps re-bound, but it could be a bumpy ride.  Now that the market has eased off for 2 days after its Monday rally, we may see some strength return tomorrow.

Market News:

U.S. stocks declined on Wednesday, pausing after its advance into new highs, waiting for evidence that the economy has bounced back from a weather-plagued first quarter.

As the Dow and the S&P 500 on Wednesday came off record highs, the 10-year Treasury yield broke below a key support, viewed by some as signaling an economic slowdown and a reason to sell riskier assets.

The 10-year Treasury yield, used in figuring mortgage rates and other consumer loans, fell 7 basis points to 2.544 percent. It earlier hit a low of 2.5258, its lowest since Oct. 31.

Thursday’s economic releases include data on industrial production, as well as regional gauges of business activity from the New York and Philadelphia Feds.

Ahead of the open, the government reported wholesale prices increased the most in more than a year in April, with producer prices up 0.6 percent in April, versus a 0.2 percent estimate.

The PPI report is the first of two this week that traders are watching for signs of inflation, with the Consumer Price Index slated for release on Thursday.

Applications for mortgages edged a bit higher last week, as rates fell to their lowest level since November, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported.

Investors also tracked events in Ukraine, where seven government soldiers were killed by pro-Russian rebels in an ambush in an eastern region on Tuesday.

Thursday

Earnings: Wal-MartNordstromJC PenneyKohl’s, Vivendi, CA,Applied Materials, Flowers Foods, Advance Auto Parts

8:30 a.m.: Weekly jobless claims

8:30 a.m.: CPI

8:30 a.m.: Empire State survey

9:00 a.m.: TIC data

9:14 a.m.: Industrial production

10:00 a.m.: Philadelphia Fed survey

10:00 a.m.: NAHB survey

6:10 p.m.: Fed Chair Janet Yellen at US Chamber of Commerce on small business

News Sources:  CNBC and CNN Money


May 13th 2014 – Another record close For the Dow and S&P

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Market View:

As I had mentioned in my notes yesterday, today was bound to be a little flat given the big advance from yesterday.

The retail sales data for April came in below expectations, but the March number was revised higher and showed the biggest advance in retail sales in 4 years.

Some big earnings out tomorrow which will drive the market, but my intuition says we go higher.

Market News:

U.S. stocks were mixed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 crossing 1,900 for the first time, as disappointing April retail sales were offset by an upward revision for the prior month and an upbeat gauge of small business sentiment.

Tuesday’s tentative moves came a day after two benchmark indexes finished at all-time highs, with one strategist saying the climb into uncharted territory likely lured buyers into the market.

Retail sales rose 0.1 percent in April, after a revised 1.5 percent jump in March, the Commerce Department reported. Expectations called for 0.4 percent growth in April.

Earlier Tuesday, the National Federation of Independent Business reported that small business sentiment hit its highest levels in 6-1/2 years in April, with seven of 10 index components advancing.

Wednesday

Earnings: Macy’sSonySodastreamCisco SystemsAgilent, Vimpelcom, DeereJack in the BoxSeaWorld, Eagle Materials, NQ Mobile

8:30 a.m.: PPI

News Sources:  CNBC and CNN Money


May 12th 2014 – Dow and S&P 500 close at records

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Market View:

Well, my call of a new all-time high in the S&P 500 was fairly immediate!  Great day to be long the market.  Tomorrow should be a little flat after such a big pop, but technically today’s daily candle of the S&P 500 could be called a thrust after a completed triangle.  So, further upside could come this week, the Nasdaq stocks may be the catalysts as they continue to recover from such a disappointing 8 weeks of downtrends and choppy trading.

Market News:

U.S. stocks rose on Monday, lifting the S&P 500 and the Dow to record finishes, as technology shares surged and M&A activity helped brighten Wall Street’s view of the economy.

Internet and biotechnology shares battered last week bounced back on Monday, with Twitter, Yahoo and Facebook among those rallying. TripAdvisor, Netflix and Biogen Idec were among the top gainers on the S&P 500.

With 90 percent of first-quarter results reported by S&P 500 companies, 69.2 percent have beaten earnings estimates, and 52.9 percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, according to Thomson Reuters

China’s government said in a Friday statement it would ease foreign-investment caps in listed companies and hike quotas for capital flows.

And, developments in Ukraine had pro-Russian rebels voting to secede in some eastern parts of the nation. The referendum has been dismissed as illegal by Kiev and Western governments.

Tuesday:

Earnings: Surgical Care Affiliates, Abercrombie and Fitch, Take Two Interactive, EnCana, Fossil, URS

7:30 a.m.: NFIB survey

8:30 a.m.: Retail sales

8:30 a.m.: Import prices

10:00 a.m.: Business inventories

10:30 a.m.: Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker

News Sources:  CNBC and CNN Money


May 8th 2014 – S&P Breakout Fails Near All Time High Close

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Market View:

We have seen more resistance again today as selling came close to a double top in the market.  The last two days have seen some mighty intraday swings.  Not sure what will get us back up to new highs, but I think the disparity between the Dow & S&P versus the Nasdaq will help push the S&P over the top soon.  The 8 week sell-off in the Nasdaq and choppy trading will end soon.  As it always does.  I think strength will return to the Nasdaq in the near term pushing up the other indexes, possibly starting even tomorrow.  The S&P is starting to look like a small trend up with 2 higher lows posted on the daily chart.

Market News:

U.S. stocks declined Thursday afternoon, with the S&P 500 retreating after rising to within two points of its record close and the Nasdaq Composite extending losses into a third day, as investors sorted through a mixed bag of earnings.

Ahead of Wall Street’s open, the Labour Department report initial jobless claims fell by 26,000 to to 319,000 last week, versus a 325,000 estimate. The four-week average rose to 324,750 from 320,250 the week before, the Labor Department said.

And, separate data showed China’s exports and imports rose in April on the year, defying expectations for a dip in both figures.

The European Central Bank on Thursday held its primary interest rate at record lows and ECB President Mario Draghi suggested in his news conference that the euro was too strong and was affecting inflation.

Friday

10:00 a.m.: Wholesale Trade

10:00 a.m.: JOLTs

07:10 p.m.: Minneapois Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota

Earnings: Ralph Lauren, ArcelorMittal, Telefonica, Petrobras, Echostar, Liberty Interactive, Alcatel-Lucent

News Sources:  CNBC and CNN Money


May 6th 2014 – Stocks Finish Sharply Lower

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Market View:

As we approach new all-time highs in the S&P 500, there is clearly natural resistance that will cause some sideways action.  Having something like 8 positive Tuesday in a row it was inevitable that this one would turn out to be a red day.  Still, I expect to see some more positive action tomorrow in some sort of rebound.  There are lots of new IPO filings tomorrow usually cheers the market.

Market News:

U.S. stocks declined sharply on Tuesday, a day after the Dow industrials and S&P 500 closed near record highs, as American International Group reported a decline in profit and Twitter fell as insiders got their first opportunity to sell since the company’s initial public offering.

The U.S. trade deficit shrank in March as exports increased, with the gap narrowing to $40.4 billion from $41.9 billion in February, the Commerce Department reported. After the trade data, JPMorgan took its tracking estimate of real GDP growth in the first quarter down to negative 0.8 percent from negative 0.4 percent.

Wednesday:

Earnings: A-B InBev, Softbank, Mondelez International, Tesla,Siemens,Chesapeake Energy , Allergan, Duke Energy, Hertz Global,Devon Energy, ING Group, Tim Hortons, Keuring Green Moutain,AOL,Sotheby’s, Prudential Financial, Transocean, Molson Coors, Solar City, Zillow, Sprout’s Farmers Market

8:30 a.m. Productivity and costs

10:00 a.m.: Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies before Joint Economic Committee on economy

3:00 p.m.: Consumer credit


May 5th 2014 – Relief as US Services Sector Overrides Global Worries

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Market View:

What started ugly turned into a pretty good day and once again shows that the trend does seem to be up on a possible stronger US economy coming out of a long cold winter.

I think we will see an all-time high in the S&P this week.  But clearly market participants are nervous given the nature of the swings today.  Chinese PMUI was quickly countertrended by US data which was great to see.

Market News:

U.S. stocks advanced today, with the Dow industrials coming back from a triple-digit deficit, as an upbeat read of the U.S. services sector countered concern about conflict in Ukraine and growth in China.

Stocks trimmed their losses, with the Dow turning positive after erasing all of a triple-digit drop, as the Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index for March found the service sector growing at its fastest clip in eight months.

The session started with equities sharply lower amid geopolitical concerns and gloomy data from China.

Recent reports from Ukraine had a Ukrainian military helicopter shot down over a rebelled-held Eastern town, with the pilots surviving, according to a statement from the Defense Ministry.

European markets finished lower, as worries over growing tensions and lawlessness in Ukraine may be causing investors some unease. Germany, Russia’s biggest European trading partner, saw its Dax index regain some lost ground after falling 1% earlier in the day.

Asian markets ended the day with mixed results, as monthly manufacturing data from China showed contraction in the world’s second largest economy. Some international markets were closed Monday, including exchanges in London, Seoul and Tokyo.

Tuesday:

Earnings: Disney, Whole Foods, Electronic Arts, Henry Schein, Mosaic, Rowan Cos, FireEye, Potbelly, Groupon, Sunoco Logistics, American Financial Group, First Solar, Marathon Oil, Agrium, CBOE Holdings,UBS, DirecTV, Discovery Communications, Holly Frontier

8:30 a.m.: International trade

7:00 p.m.: Fed Gov. Jeremy Stein

New Sourses:  CNN Money & CNBC


May 2nd 2014 – Stocks Slip Amid Ukraine Worries

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Market View:

A rather sleep start to May.  Fact is the S&P 500 has declined 2 days in a row now, letting of some steam before it takes its new all-time high in my opinion.  I expect it to happen early next week.

Great jobs report.  That will put pressure on the next one to top this one.  Even last months report was revised higher.

Market News:

U.S. stocks declined today, losing gains that had lifted the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 above their record closes, as rising unrest in Ukraine offset a better-than-expected April jobs report.

On Friday, Russia requested an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council over a Ukrainian army operation.  While Obama met with Germany’s chancellor Merkel to join forces against Russian influence in the Ukraine.

Gold futures erased a loss to turn higher, as did the CBOE Volatility Index, a measure of investor uncertainty, which pulled above 13.

The U.S. Labour Department reported the creation of 288,000 jobs in April from an upwardly revised 203,000 in March, with the jobless rate at 6.3 percent. Expectations called for the addition of 210,000 jobs during April. Analysts polled by Reuters also saw unemployment falling to 6.6 percent.

After climbing above its all-time closing high set on April 30, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 45.98 points, or 0.3 percent, to 16,512.89, with Merck & Co., Johnson & Johnson and Pfizer pacing losses that included 18 of 30 components.

European markets finished mixed, while Asian markets mostly moved forward Friday, but the gains were modest


May 1st 2014 – Stocks Little Moved Before Jobs Report

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Market View:

Nice to see the Nasdaq recover a little against the other major indexes.  As there has been such a disparity over the last 6-8 weeks.  It is a good sign that the S&P and the Dow closed down today, it gives the market a pause before it is able to move forward and reach for new all-time Highs in the S&P 500 and the Dow.  The trend in the Nasdaq points to further upside in my opinion.  The spanner in the works is the Monthly jobs report that is released tomorrow morning before the bell, but I will be surprised if there is any major shift in sentiment no matter what it reports.  With the Fed blaming the weather, what difference will a bad report do?  I see only upside…but of course, anything can happen!

Market News:

U.S. stocks fluctuated today, a day after the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to a record finish, as investors took a cautious approach a day before the April nonfarm payrolls report.

The Nasdaq, however, climbed along with Internet companies, which drew a lift after Yelp reported healthy revenue growth, with the online guide to local businesses surging nearly 10 percent.

A separate report from the Commerce Department on Thursday had consumer spending jumping the most in nearly five years in March, up 0.9 percent, while the Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 54.9 in April from 53.7 the month before.

Thursday’s data comes before Friday’s April employment report, with the government expected to report nonfarm payrolls increasing by 210,000 last month.

Trading in a 75-point range on either side of neutral, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2 percent.

After rising to within reach of its record close hit on April 2, the S&P 500 finished little changed, with utilities and consumer discretionary faring best and materials and energy falling hardest among its 10 major industry groups.

The Nasdaq rose 0.3 percent.

Friday

Earnings: Chevron, Estee Lauder, TransCanada, Marsh and McClennan, Newell Rubbermaid, Sempra Energy, CVS Caremark

8:30 a.m.: Employment Report

10:00 a.m.: Factory orders